Updated: 09/11/2013 7:45 PM
Created: 09/11/2013 11:02 AM WHEC.com
Two days before the primary election, a Siena College poll had Mayor Tom Richards leading challenger Lovely Warren by 36 points. So how could he lose by 16 points last night? How could the latest poll be so wrong?
We are talking with the pollster today to ask those questions.
Here's a quick breakdown of what the September 8th poll indicated:
- Mayor Thomas Richards leads with the support of 63 percent of likely voters, compared to 27 percent for City Council President Lovely Warren (up from 55-28 percent in an August poll)
- While Warren has a sizeable lead among black voters, 54-29 percent, it is not nearly large enough to offset the 84-11 percent lead Richards holds among white voters. And there is no gender gap in this race, as Richards leads by 36 points with men and with women.
- Richards' favorability rating among likely primary voters is 74-17 percent, up from 66-15 percent in August. Warren has a 59-26 favorability rating, up from 50-20 percent in August.
In explaining the poll results, Siena College pollster Steve Greenberg said, "more than two-thirds of likely primary voters think Rochester is headed on the right track, Richards is viewed favorably and as doing a good job as mayor, and the vast majority thinks he will be re-elected. That is almost always a combination that spells victory for the incumbent and defeat for the challenger."
The Siena College polls for the mayoral races in Albany and Buffalo predicted landslide victories for the front runners, Mayor Byron Brown (Buffalo) and Treasurer Kathy Sheehan (Albany) and those predictions came true last night.
Click here to read the Siena College poll that came out September 8.