Will we shiver through September? Not necessarily

Created: 08/27/2014 5:49 PM WHEC.com
By: Josh Nichols

It’s been a big topic on social media -- reports of what we can expect for the weather over the next few months.

The Buffalo News published an article this week about the Farmer's Almanac report. It says we could see record low temperatures in September and maybe even snow by mid-November but should we really believe all the buzz?

After a wet summer with little extreme heat, there's already a lot of talk about what kind of weather fall will bring.

Recently, a private meteorology firm released a forecast calling for snow in September. It created a lot of buzz on social media, especially when the term polar vortex was thrown about yet again. Just this week, there was even more buzz about the fall forecast when the Farmer’s Almanac called for an unseasonably chilly September citing a "secret formula" in making their prediction. All of this buzz left many who study the weather professionally a bit puzzled.

Dr. Scott Rochette is a professor of meteorology at the College at Brockport. He works with known formulas that govern the atmosphere and knows that long range forecasting relies more on using past patterns to predict the future rather than secret formulas. “Patterns tend to repeat themselves. They're not perfect by any stretch of the imagination but they do give us some insight into what's happening or what could potentially happen in the future based on what has happened in the past. It's a long standing forecast method.

So, should we worry about shivering through September? Not necessarily. “Events can be correlated but one might not be the cause of the other and that's something everyone needs to remember -- correlation might not be cause or effect."

This summer's weather pattern in our area was very similar to that 2009. That September brought more sunshine than average and near normal temperatures -- no polar vortices.

If our current projections for September verify, we may see more of the likes of what happened here in 2009 and not the kind of extreme cold some may suggest.

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