First Alert: Seasonable weather expected this week before a potential warmup

ROCHESTER, N.Y. (WHEC) – After stubborn cloud cover this morning, we will see the sunshine return by the middle of the day.

Highs this afternoon will reach the mid and upper 40s with it being a bit cooler along the lakeshore. Enjoy the day today though as clouds will increase tonight and more rain and snow showers are expected for Sunday.

An area of low pressure will slide to our south tomorrow and keep us on the unsettled side with clouds and scattered rain and snow showers. A washout is not expected, but on and off rain and snow showers are expected throughout the day. With the overcast skies, we will also be on the colder side as temperatures struggle to reach 40s degrees. Even after a cool Sunday, temperatures will warm up to start this week.

Highs on Monday make their way back into the upper 40s to near 50 under mostly cloudy skies, and then into the mid 50s by Wednesday and Thursday. However, as we head into the middle and end of this week we will once again turn unsettled. Low pressure over the Southeast will bring us showers as it tracks north on Wednesday. Then, an upper level low right on its heels will move in from the Central U.S. for the rest of the week and into next weekend. We will start off on the mild side with this second area of low pressure, but cooler weather will follow behind it for next weekend. Scattered showers and expected Thursday before turning isolated Friday. We will also begin to slowly turn cooler Friday as temperatures will drop into the low 40s during the afternoon.

We will continue to turn cooler for next weekend with another round of a few rain and snow showers possible Saturday and then a few lake flakes into early Sunday. Although another cool down is expected next weekend, there are promising signs for more persistent warm following.

Models are signaling an upper level ridge to build over the Eastern US following this cool shot next week. This would push the jet stream to our north and bring a much greater chance for above normal temperatures across the region. Our average high by that week will be in the mid and low 50s which means above normal temperatures would favor 60s and potentially 70s locally. The remaining question is will that pattern switch last? Models are signaling it to last into Easter weekend, but differ on whether it continues after that or we revert back to cooler weather. Something to follow, but the good news is that signs for a warmup are in the forecast!
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