First Alert Weather: Enjoy the break before rain returns Thursday

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ROCHESTER, N.Y. (WHEC) — Our fair weather from Wednesday will be replaced by a period of moderate to heavy rain overnight. An area of low pressure spinning across the Ohio Valley will move just south of us and spread rain into Western New York after midnight.

Rainfall will be moderate, but some soaking downpours are expected to move through, perhaps with a little thunder. Severe weather isn’t expected, and neither is flooding, so we’re still green on our First Alert Threat Tracker. The majority of the steadiest rain should be exiting by early Thursday morning, with many spots picking up a general 0.50 – 1" of rain. We’ll see a few more passing showers and a cool breeze by afternoon, but the majority of the rain will fall overnight. Friday will be another nice day with fair weather and a mostly sunny sky.

There are a few changes in the weekend forecast. First, Saturday is trending drier, with nothing more than an isolated pop-up afternoon shower. Meanwhile, rain chances are trending up on Sunday, with our next weak wave of low pressure drawing closer by the end of the day. This would introduce rain chances by late afternoon and evening. If this speeds up just a little bit, we may be dealing with showers earlier in the day on Sunday. With that, Sunday is now looking like the wetter weekend day, but neither day is a washout.

Temperatures will remain slightly below average through early next week, but comfortable, with daytime highs in the lower 70s and overnight lows in the lower 50s. A big heat dome over the central US will try to nudge eastward toward the middle to end of next week, which would translate to warmer and more summer-like air making a return. But, that may also come with increased rain and storm chances. Stay tuned.


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