In Depth: Beyond the 10 Day

ROCHESTER, N.Y. (WHEC) — It is Wednesday, Jan. 5, which means it is time for another update on “Beyond the 10 Day.” No video this week due to a “Yellow Alert” for lake effect snow tonight and tomorrow, but let’s still get into what to expect.

Currently, across the United States the jet stream is diving across the heart of the nation before moving northeast through the Northeast. This dip in the jet stream has kept us cool over the past couple of days and cooler weather is on the way over the next few days and through next week.

Our pattern flip has begun across the United States and the Northern Hemisphere. The upper level ridge near Alaska has migrated to the west and over the Bering Strait and our block over Greenland has broken down. The storminess that has been stuck over the Western half of the US has ejected east and has broken down. This movement has set up increased chances for cold and snow across our region locally.

We talked about our increased chances for lake effect snow moving forward on Sunday and our first significant lake effect of the season is expected to set up behind a clipper that swings through this evening.

For more information on how much snow is expected and the duration of this event refer to the “Yellow Alert Update Article” on our website.

This lake effect event is the first of a series of lake effect chances that will setup over the next couple of weeks. An upper level ridge will build over the Western US this weekend and force the jet stream to dip across the Eastern half of the nation. Although this is great news, the lack of blocking over Greenland during this time will keep the jet stream over the Southeast US instead of hugging the East Coast. This setup is what I like to call “suppression depression” as storm energy will be kept well south and the storm track stays south and suppressed.

Just because our synoptic storm chances are limited doesn’t mean we can’t get snow. The flow over the Great Lakes will be from the west/northwest over the next two weeks which is favorable for lake effect snow.

Another ingredient needed for lake effect snow will be the cold air and that will likely be in abundance. This west/northwesterly flow will also favor Alberta Clippers moving across the Great Lakes which will bring our snow totals up locally.

Overall, it looks like this weather pattern continues over the next two weeks with cold and lake effect snow favored but there is concern for a breakdown of the cold after MLK weekend.

Models remain uncertain, but this morning one model showed signs of a potential breakdown of this pattern and a return towards the look of December. This look is pictured over 14 days and the look today will change tomorrow, but the potential breakdown exists. Something to monitor as we move forward over the next couple of weeks, and if it does, enjoy the cold and snowier setup the next couple of weeks because these next two weeks could be our real taste of Winter this season.

Our next update will come on Wednesday, Jan. 19, as I am away for a bit of time, hopefully enjoying the snow!

Temperatures: Below average the next two weeks, potential for Arctic outbreaks

Precipitation: Above average next two weeks

Storm Chances:

January 6th-January 7th: Lake effect snow behind Alberta clipper, another shot of cold air

January 9th-January 11th: Warm with rain showers on Sunday, followed by lake effect snow developing early next week

January 16th-January 18th: Alberta Clipper followed by another round of lake effect snow