In Depth: Beyond the 10 Day

ROCHESTER, N.Y. (WHEC) — After a two week hiatus, “Beyond the 10 Day” back with a winter outlook.

Currently across the United States, ridging is occurring over the Western US with troughing over the Eastern US. This is favoring warmer weather out west, and the cold stretch of weather we have been dealing with locally is due to the trouging in the east. Confidence is also increasing for this setup to continue through the rest of January and into early February before things may change.

After a “mild” day today, temperatures will revert to the 20s and teens thanks to an Arctic front that swings through late today. By the looks of things, today may be the last time we see temperatures over the freezing mark for a good week or so.

Ridging out west will continue over the next week or so, and so will the troughing over the east. This will favor storminess over our region locally with lake effect, clippers, and the potential for another snowstorm.

Earlier this week, there was a potential for another area of low pressure to climb the East Coast this weekend. However, models have strayed away from this solution as high pressure over New England will be too strong and likely suppress this storm out to sea after affecting the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic.

Another factor leading to the lack of a northern track will be the missing interaction between the northern and southern streams of energy. This time around, the northern branch of energy will out race the southern branch to the East Coast and keep this storm out to sea. This will also be a big factor in our next storm chance early next week.

Next Tuesday/Wednesday, we will have another opportunity for low pressure to form along the East Coast and bring us snow once again. The main question with this will be if the energy phase will be just right or too late. Models have the potential there, but they are having the northern branch of energy “out pacing” the southern branch which keeps major snow at bay. It will be something to monitor because if the timing is perfect than there will be another great chance for heavy snow. Even if we don’t see the timing work out, there still is an opportunity for snow as an Alberta Clipper swings through during that timeframe.

After early next week, the jet stream will remain over the Southeast US and keep storm chances well south. With this pattern we would need the northern stream of energy to dig deep and bring low pressure up the East Coast, which is not heard of, but difficult to do. Even through our major snow chances may become tame for a bit, clippers and lake effect will be favored with the upper level winds. One thing to watch will be ice cover moving forward with the significant cold expected as too much us will shut the lake effect snow machine off. Into early February the pattern basically remains the same, but uncertainty builds on if it begins to change.

Models have begun to show a pattern change towards the early part of February, but there is uncertainty being so far out. The European models has begun to show troughing returning to the Western US, but it is also showing troughing over the Southeast US. This kind of setup would not warm us up significantly, but lessen the cold grip over our region and keep storm chances well south. However, the GFS remains persistent in a continuation of the cold and storminess locally with ridging continuing out west.

Also, towards the early days of February we will be watching out for the potential of snow to fall locally once again. After a short stretch with a southern jet stream it begins to move north at the beginning of February, and the overall dynamic would favor low pressure to track along the East Coast or through the Great Lakes. Too far out for any kind of details, but something to monitor as we progress into February.

Our next update will come this Sunday January, 23rd.

Temperatures: Below average with shots of Arctic air.

Precipitation: Slightly below average.

Storm Chances:

  • January 25th-January 26th: Alberta clipper or low pressure up the east Coast. Timing of northern stream and southern stream will determine outcome.
  • February 1st-February 2nd: Potential for East Coast low, timing of northern and southern stream energy will determine outcome. Has potential to go out to sea or cut through the Great Lakes.