In-Depth: Beyond the 10 Days weather outlook

ROCHESTER, N.Y. (WHEC) — Across the United States right now, we have our upper-level ridge over the Western U.S. and a deep-digging trough over the Eastern U.S.

The ridge over the Western U.S. is keeping them on the dry and mild side while we are dealing with cold and snowy weather, but if you are rooting for a February thaw, you are going to have good news on this update! Zooming out, we have a lobe of the Polar Vortex sitting near the Hudson Bay and a building ridge over the Atlantic, and a building ridge over the Pacific. All these pieces will be important to our storm late this week and for the overall weather pattern through the end of February.

After a cold start to this workweek, milder weather will make an appearance towards the middle and end of this week. Toward the end of next week, things will turn unsettled as an area of low pressure approaches the Ohio River Valley. Track of low pressure continues to be uncertain. Models over the past several days have continued to trend south and opened the door for our region to see snow, but this morning they have retreated back north keeping us on the milder sidetrack of low pressure will come down to the strength of it as it forms over the Central U.S. A stronger area of low pressure will recurve while a weaker wave of low pressure will slide south of our region and bring us snow like our last event two weeks ago. Also, we will watch high pressure to the west as that will supply the cold air. This time around, it is not as strong as our last event but it still has the potential to bring enough cold air to change rain to snow. Uncertainty will likely remain until the energy comes ashore late Monday night and early Tuesday morning. At this moment, we would need to see some bigger changes through today and tomorrow to bring heavy snow across our region locally. After our storm chance this week, snow looks unlikely across our region with milder weather expected.

The ridge over the Atlantic will slide in next weekend and begin to build for next week. This will increase our chances for milder weather, and it will push the storm track to the north. Ridging will also take over, over the Pacific and let the storminess settle in over the Western U.S. rather than the east. Also, the lobe of the Polar Vortex will settle north over the Hudson Bay and towards Greenland, unlike where it has been through most of the last month and a half, and help invite milder air locally. During this patter, we do have a couple of storm chances to watch.

These two storm chances are likely milder with rain, but obviously, something to watch. Our first storm chance will come towards the middle of next week (Feb. 22-Feb. 24). The overall jet dynamics of this system favor a milder storm locally as milder air from the Pacific is being pulled in from the west and an upper-level ridge over the Eastern U.S. pushing this storm off towards the north. Obviously, it is February so we will watch our for potential southern trends and the possibility of snow is there, but highly unlikely at this time. After that, our next storm chance will come the following weekend (Feb. 26- Feb. 28). As we end February, we may be tracking a milder storm again with rain likely. Once again, the jet dynamics are favoring milder air locally by bringing in milder air over the southern Pacific. Also by this time, the upper-level ridge will have a firm grip across the Eastern U.S. and favor a northern track. Again, something to watch for snow to fall, but at this moment rain is likely. Our next update will come on Wednesday, Feb. 16.

Temperatures: Overall near or above average the next two weeks:

Precipitation: Above average

Storm Chances:

Feb. 16-Feb 17: Low pressure will track into the Ohio River Valley, models have trended south with the track but retreated north this morning lessening our chance for snow. However, the track remains uncertain. Rain is likely to start, but a change to snow is possible into Friday AM.

Feb. 22-Feb. 22: Likely a Great Lakes Cutter with a building ridge over the Eastern U.S.

Feb. 26-Feb. 28: Another storm favored to bring rain, watching behind this for a pattern shift.