Political report moves Rep. Collins' district from "likely" to "leans" Republican

September 20, 2018 06:44 AM

If you look at the numbers in New York's 27th Congressional District, the election should not be close. But the scandal of Rep. Chris Collins' arrest for insider trading and lying to the FBI is changing that. 

The Cook Political Report says this race is one step away from being a toss-up.  


"At this point, I still have to support Chris Collins, he's done a good job," barber Al Pezzimenti said. He owns Al's Barber Shop in Victor, which is in Collins' district. Al calls Collins a friend.  

Al Pezzimenti, Al's Barber Shop Victor: "Whatever this situation is, he hasn't been proven guilty yet." 

News10NBC told Pezzimenti about the Cook Political Report. It says the race between Collins' and Democrat Nate McMurray "moves from likely Republican to leans Republican." 

That is significant because, in the district, active Republican voters outnumber active Democrats by 40,000.  

"All the media press goes for right now against anything to do with President Trump," Pezzimenti said. "So I'm sure it is against him." 

Dr. Kathleen Donovan added, "If I have to put money down I'd probably have to still think that Chris Collins is going to [win] because it is such a Republican district."

Dr. Donovan teaches about campaigns and elections at St. John Fisher College. 

When News10NBC asked her about the Cook Political Report she says two things are going on here. 

"One is the fact that scandals do affect people," she said, adding, "but the other big factor is the so-called blue wave that may or may not be happening."

The day in August when Collins was charged in New York City, Republican Party leaders in western New York started devising a way to get him off the ballot. But the day he decided to stay, the head of the party in Erie County raised this warning. 

"I think it's very important that this seat stays in Republican hands because Nate McMurray is a vote to impeach the president and that'll be he and Nancy Pelosi's first order of business next January first," Nick Langworthy, chair of Erie County Republican Party said.

On the Cook Political Report, Nate McMurray's campaign wrote simply, "NY's 27th, likely Republican no longer." 

For Democrats to win control of the House, they need to win 24 Republican seats. President Trump won Collins' district by 24 points in 2016.

Collins has more than a million dollars to spend. 


Berkeley Brean

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