First Alert Weather In-Depth: Winter weather on the horizon?

ROCHESTER, N.Y. (WHEC) — We know we have had some warmer than usual weather through the month of October.

But there is some indication over the last couple of days that the tide may be starting to turn. First Alert Meteorologist Glenn Johnson looked at the computer modeling and saw this changing over the next ten day period.

Johnson was specifically looking at the American model and the European model, and as he went through time with these models, it took him through the middle of the next week, which is the first week of November.

Johnson is getting more and more confident that there is going to be a major shift in the weather as the jet stream is pushing to the south and obviously it is going to be turning colder. Another way to look at this is the probability of this colder air coming in. Over the next 1 to 2 weeks a good portion of the country will shift toward, what appears to be, much colder than normal. This would line up for the first week of November.

Here is what we know, and maybe what we don’t know: Obviously when we are looking nine or 10 days into the future, it is difficult to be very specific. However, we know some of the coldest weather this season is probably heading our way, and because it is going to be cold, we think we are going to get some kind of lake response.

What is the “lake response”? It is lake effect. Where is that going to be? We do not know. It depends on the wind direction and it depends on how cold it gets. But Johnson thinks it is going to be a little bit of rain and wet snow. That is typical through the early portion of the season.

The greatest likelihood of any of the snowy stuff is going to be in the higher elevations. Will we be getting any accumulation? We just do not know. Obviously, this is why we talk about “First Alert” and this is why we want to alert you first. Maybe a sign the first hint of winter weather coming our way.