First Alert Weather: Heat returns, and so does the storm threat

ROCHESTER, N.Y. — We’ve enjoyed a stretch of comfortable and quiet weather, but we’re starting to change that this week. The big heat that’s been sitting over the central U.S. will be trying to work eastward. It’ll likely make it in for at least one day, but we’ll be dealing with a complicated setup this week.

Tuesday will be hot and more humid as the ridge builds east. Temperatures will be flirting with 90 away from Lake Ontario. This heat will likely be short-lived, as a cold front moves back southward on Wednesday, dropping our temperatures back into the upper 70s and lower 80s. Thursday will likely stay there, before that same front lifts back northward as a warm front on Friday, pushing us back into the mid to upper 80s.

As far as our storm chances go, this is where the forecast gets a bit more complicated. A compact cluster of storms will be riding along that heat dome as it pushes into our region. This will ramp up on our storm chances Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, though some of the latest guidance keeps the main storm threat just to our south. The cold front that will knock our temperatures back on Wednesday will also help to produce a few showers or thunderstorms. With limited instability, severe chances appear somewhat on the lower end of the scale.

At this point, Thursday looks mainly dry with that front nearby, but likely far enough south to keep the main storm threat away, but lifts back northward on Friday. That will bring a renewed chance for storms later in the day Friday, before the front finally pushes south once and for all by early Saturday.

For those making weekend plans, we may start the holiday weekend with some showers Saturday morning, followed by some clearing. A secondary cold front dropping south may bring a few more scattered showers later on Sunday, followed by cooler and fresh air with clouds and sun for Labor Day.