ROCHESTER, N.Y. – We are now officially in the tropical cyclone season. When a storm develops in the Atlantic basin and its winds reach 39 miles per hour, it is given a name. These names are assigned alphabetically, beginning with Andrea and ending with Wendy for the 2025 season. If we reach the latter portion of this list, it signals a particularly active season.

Two primary organizations release forecasts for the upcoming season: the National Hurricane Center (a division of NOAA) and Colorado State University. Both use current atmospheric and oceanic conditions to project activity. A comparison of their forecasts shows strong agreement that this season is expected to be more active than average.

Typically, an average Atlantic hurricane season sees:

• 14 named storms (winds of 39+ mph),
• 7 hurricanes (winds of 74+ mph),
• 3 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher).

This year, both organizations are predicting numbers above those averages. NOAA, for example, gives a 60 percent chance of an above-average season. While predicting the total number of storms is difficult, forecasting exactly where these storms will make landfall is an even greater challenge.

One major factor influencing storm development is sea surface temperature, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico. Currently, water temperatures range from the upper 70s to near 90 degrees. Since tropical systems need water temperatures of at least 80 degrees Fahrenheit to develop, conditions are already favorable. However, warm water is just one of many factors involved in storm formation.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to November 30. Historically, storm activity increases significantly in late August, with September being the peak month for tropical cyclone formation.