First Alert Weather In-Depth: More mild weather ahead

ROCHESTER, N.Y. — The month of October was mild in Rochester as the month was 3.3F above average.

However, minus a few mild days, November has started off on the cooler side of things. It is early in the month, but we are 1.3F below average. This low average will likely change through the next 10 days a good amount of mild weather is ahead.

This is thanks to an upper level ridge that will build across the easter. U.S. next week. We will likely be chilly this weekend with highs in the low 40s and upper 30s, but milder weather returns just behind that. An upper level ridge builds in towards the middle of next week as highs return to the 50s and even the chance for the 60s to return to the forecast by next Friday (11/17). Not only that, but we will remain quite dry. This ridge of high pressure will push the jet stream to our north, and this also means the storm track moves north too.

Now, something we are monitoring, with another stretch of dry weather on the way, are our precipitation numbers. Latest drought monitor has stretched the “moderate drought” for basically everyone Rochester westward, with the entirety of the viewing area under “abnormally dry” conditions, and areas southwest of Rochester remaining under a “severe drought.” This is because since the start of September the pattern ahs turned much drier. September ended up over 1.75 inches below normal. October was 1.39 inches below normal. And thus far in November we are just under half an inch below normal.

Adding it all up and we are over 3.5 inches of precipitation below normal since the beginning of September. Not concerning yet, but something to watch and see if it persists through winter. Regardless, enjoy the upcoming milder stretch of weather that is in the forecast for next week!