Rochester, N.Y. – It is such an important part of everyday life here in Rochester, especially this time of the year.  I am talking about the temperature. It effects the type of precipitation, the amount of precipitation and simple when will the snow and ice will be melting.

A quick look at the last 31 days at the Rochester Airport shows that 21 of those days have measured below average temperatures. In fact, there were many instances when the temperature was significantly below normal. But what about the month of February? A look ahead to the extended outlook indicates near normal temperatures over a six to ten day time period. That would take us from this weekend to the middle of next week (2/8 – 2/12). Considering what we went through in January, most of us would sign up for just “average” winter temperatures.

But our News 10NBC First Alert meteorologists can take this out even further in time. The temperature outlook over the next eight to fourteen days could be hinting another shift in the pattern (2/10 – 2/16). This could mean that Western New York would revert back the below normal temperatures.  It is too early to be definitive, but the extended outlook does appear to be shifting back to some much colder weather. It is important to note that this is not a specific weather forecast, but an outlook that highlights the temperature probability.  It is conveying the output of an ensemble or a group of similar forecasts. Simple stated, it shares one possible outcome and needs to be studied and followed.

It is not a stretch to say there is pretty good probability that we have a lot more winter coming our way before this season is finished.