The First Alert Weather team has a Yellow Alert up for Friday night and Saturday morning as we are expected to see another round of wintry weather. This storm will be a complex one as a 10-20-mile difference will dictate whether you stay all-snow, have a mix with sleet and freezing rain, or even see plain old rain.

It is March — but we will also have strong winds about 5,000 feet above the surface bringing in warmer air from the south that will try to erode the colder air to the north. The direction of the winds where you are will be key on setting up the rain-snow line. Winds around 5,000 feet blowing out of the north will supply the cold air, while the southerly wind direction will let the warm air erode that cold air. Even as of Friday afternoon there are some discrepancies on just how far the warm air gets. The colder solution, which keeps most of our region snow, has the northerly winds blowing as far south as the Finger Lakes. This situation would keep all areas north of the Thruway snow with the rain-snow line setting up mainly over the Southern Tier. The milder solution to Friday night’s storm has the northerly wind direction blowing as far north as the Thruway. This would bring the rain-snow line to right about the Thruway with parts of the Finger Lakes seeing plain rain. The warmer solution also opens the door for mixing in the city of Rochester as well with most areas along Route 104 staying all snow.

This is a key piece to the forecast as this will dictate the snowfall amounts. Areas that stay mainly/all snow will likely see anywhere between 4-6-plus inches of snow. Areas that don’t change to all rain, but mix with sleet and freezing rain, will only see a slushy 2-4 inches of snow along with a potential glaze of ice. Those that see a change over to plain old rain will likely not see much, as they only see a slushy inch or two.