First Alert Weather In-Depth: Winter arrives out west

ROCHESTER, N.Y. – This is a difficult meteorological subject to discuss so early in the season. And I really hesitate to even mention the word. However, it is getting to be that time of the year when snow starts to enter our vocabulary again.

It is way too early to be looking for snow here in Western New York. However, it will be a reality in the coming days for folks living out west. Our computer models are showing that snow is likely for portions of the state of Alaska. In particular, the focus is in the higher elevations around Anchorage and Juneau. In addition, early season snow is possible for portions of the northern Rocky Mountains. This is all predicated in a significant change in the weather pattern as the jet stream and upper level winds push south by the end of the week. This will usher in marginally colder air that will be focused on the Bitterroot Mountains of Montana, Wyoming and Idaho.

We expect the temperature there will be running five to 10 degrees colder than the historical average for this time of the year. This may not sound all that cold, but at an elevation of 10,000 feet or higher, it will likely put temperatures into the 20s. We should emphasize that this will not be nearly enough snow for the ski resorts to open, but nevertheless a slushy accumulation is possible.

So bringing this back to Rochester you may be wondering what is the earliest snowfall in recorded history for us? The earliest snowflakes to have fallen in Rochester goes back to September 10, 1956 and the first inch of snowfall goes way back to October 11, 1906.

So dust off that snow shovel because it is just a matter of time for Western New York.